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The Chancellor of the Exchequer announced it as a Budget for the strivers, grafters and carers. A Budget ‘unashamedly’ for the British public that paved the way for a brighter future post-Brexit and aimed to ‘help working people keep more of their money’.
Not so, retorted Jeremy Corbyn: it was a budget of half measures and quick fixes – ‘austerity is not ending – because austerity has failed’, he said. He gave the Chancellor something of a roasting over much of the content and went on to comment that the deficit looked smaller because chunks of it had been moved into other people’s budget figures. Was this then a case of smoke and mirrors once again?
Initially, Chancellor Philip Hammond seemed only intent on praising the British public for their ‘hard work’ later announcing that ‘austerity is coming to an end but discipline will remain’. Ever-cautious, he found himself in a particularly tight corner for this year’s Budget – politically and fiscally. With a fractious party and febrile electorate to appease, Theresa May’s conference announcement that ‘the people need to hear that austerity is over’ was probably the last thing he wanted to hear.
Particularly as in all honesty he couldn’t be firm about anything. Announcements made now could quite possibly come unstuck once the country had crossed the Brexit Rubicon. In fact Philip Hammond was keen to impress that he was prepared to adapt his approach depending on the outcome of the Brexit negotiations. Which would most likely mean a whole new Budget in the spring.
He had some wriggle room, provided by better-than-forecast government spending figures with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) admitting, prior to the Budget, that it had probably been too pessimistic – perhaps that Eeyore style is catching? And there was initially much speculation on what he might do with that ‘fiscal headroom’. However, in their initial comments following the Chancellor’s announcements the OBR noted that the government had already spent its so-called fiscal windfall – in June with the announcement that there would be £20billion extra funding for the NHS, which was expanded on today – leaving the finances pretty much as they were at the spring statement. According to the OBR, if you add in the policy announcements of today, the deficit remains largely unchanged in 2022-23.
The OBR have also cautioned that, as the Treasury was late in providing them with all the detail regarding the precise changes to Universal Credit, they have been unable to check if the figures add up. This means that the estimated impact on borrowing figures might change once they have properly worked through the detail.
It’s also worth noting that in a further comment the OBR has said that, although the Chancellor said if there was a no-deal departure from the EU the UK could manage: ‘a disorderly one could have severe short-term implications for the economy, the exchange rate, asset prices and the public finances. The scale would be hard to predict, given the lack of precedent’.
So what was in the Budget that would affect our financial planning? Directly, not a great deal but there were a couple of key announcements – notably that the previously scheduled increases to the income tax personal allowance and higher rate band would occur from April 2019 rather than 2020 (to £12,500 and £50,000 respectively).
In fact many of the announcements had already been made – including the one about a commemorative 50p Brexit coin but he didn’t mention that in the speech. There was no mention of pensions, despite increasing speculation that pension tax relief would be an easy gain for the government’s coffers – presumably with everything else the Chancellor had no stomach for the reaction to that. Schools received additional funding, strangely though this was less than the amount ear-marked for potholes. And for much of the detail on various tax measures, whether regarding tax avoidance or tax payments by tech giants, we were directed to the Budget red book.