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Geopolitical uncertainty

Monday 18th May 2026

The conflict involving Iran and the US has contributed to heightened volatility across global markets. Understandably you will want to know how this has affected your portfolio and, importantly, the steps we are taking to safeguard your investments.

With energy prices fluctuating sharply and supply chain routes in the region experiencing disruption, several sectors in which we’re invested, particularly those sensitive to geopolitical instability and commodity pricing, have been influenced.

However, to date the impact of this on your investment valuations has been limited, meaning we have not needed to take responsive actions.  Instead, we continue to adopt the following key investment strategies:

  • Staying invested (do not panic). Historically, markets tend to rise a year after geopolitical shocks. Exiting during volatility often leads to missing the recovery, so maintaining a long-term perspective is crucial.
  • Diversify and defensive positioning. Across our investment portfolios we maintain exposure to defensive equities, such as healthcare, utilities, and consumer staples companies, which tend to deliver stable earnings. We also hold allocations to gold and government bonds which, despite their initial sell offs, remain traditional safe-haven assets.
  • Energy sector exposure. Whilst oil and shipping companies tend to be winners, (because conflict raises the potential for supply disruption), the outlook for companies involved in renewable energy is also favourable as economies seek alternative energy sources.
  • Monitoring inflationary pressure. Rising energy prices may increase inflation, which is why we have exposure to inflation-linked bonds (index-linked bonds) and companies with pricing power (our infrastructure holdings for example).
  • Avoid emotional trading. We avoid attempting to ‘time the market’. Instead, we continue to rebalance portfolios to keep risk aligned with goals rather than trying to guess the next market move. This sees us sell the growth assets and buy defensive assets in the good market times to offer protection when markets experience downturns. During the downturns we will sell some of the defensive assets and increase exposure to growth assets ahead of any market rebound.
  • Focus on high-quality assets. We hold many companies with solid balance sheets that should be able to withstand most economic shocks.

As the situation continues to develop, our priorities remain clear: preserve value, manage risk proactively, and position the portfolio to capture opportunities that may emerge once markets stabilise. We are prepared to make further adjustments if conditions warrant, and we will continue to evaluate both short‑term risks and long‑term structural implications.

We appreciate your trust during a period of global uncertainty. If you would like to discuss any aspect of this update in more detail, please feel free to call us.